PROVE IT: a CO2-to-methanol conversion technology

How can CO₂ in the long term become a valuable feedstock for the Dutch industry? PROVE IT explored this question by validating CO₂‑to‑methanol technology, mapping future carbon flows, and demonstrating what is needed to make e‑methanol viable at scale.

In short:

A system‑level picture of future carbon flows in the Netherlands.
Validated catalyst models enabling reliable CO₂‑to‑methanol reactor design.
A techno‑economic case for e‑methanol production using CO₂ from waste incineration.
Insights into policy conditions required for a e‑methanol market.

Towards a sustainable carbon life-cycle

The Netherlands is moving from fossil carbon to circular, renewable sources where possible. Yet future carbon flows are uncertain: where will carbon come from, how will it move across value chains, and which technologies will enable climate‑neutral production?

At the same time, methanol is emerging as a strategic molecule — a platform chemical and a fuel for maritime transport. But producing methanol from CO₂ and green hydrogen (e‑methanol) will be expensive. Insight is necessary for the industry on feasibility, costs, and the technological advances to invest in developing this route.

About the project

PROVE IT brought together partners across industry and academia to answer three key questions:

1. How will carbon circulate in a future Dutch circular economy?

Utrecht University created the first national carbon flow map and analyzed future scenarios.

2. Can CO₂‑to‑methanol catalysts achieve long‑term stability?

This project combined high-throughput catalyst testing at Avantium with kinetic modelling and catalyst characterization at the University of Twente to advance CO₂-based methanol synthesis technology. Three long term experiments (1.000-2.000 hours) systematically evaluated catalyst performance under industrial-relevant conditions, generating comprehensive datasets for model development.

3. Is e‑methanol production from waste‑derived CO₂ economically feasible?

To evaluate the economic viability of e-methanol production at Twence, a conceptual process design with a subsequent techno-economic analysis (TEA) was developed. In addition, preliminary P&IDs were created, including sizing of major equipment and control loops with alarms and interlocks. A process narrative with control philosophy was provided to support these documents. Finally, an indicative plot plan was developed to give an impression of what an e‑methanol plant at Twence could look like.

This integrated approach allowed PROVE IT to evaluate e‑methanol both at system level and at plant‑scale.

The Results

A first‑of‑its‑kind carbon flow map

Created in consultation with CBS and well‑received by RVO and the Ministry of Infrastructure & Water Management.
Shows current carbon flows and gives early insights into how they may shift towards 2050.

Download the Carbon flow map

Clear perspective on the role of methanol

E‑methanol, and the e-fuels and e-chemicals made from it, only becomes competitive when specific mandates or policy incentives exist.
Without such mandates, carbon‑neutral methanol produced from biogenic or waste‑based carbon offers a major advantage: it has the potential todeliver roughly four times more methanol with the same amount of green electricity and is likely more cost‑effective. This efficiency gap is so large that, in situations without accessible CO₂ point sources or surplus renewable electricity, it can put the relevance of e‑fuel mandates into question.

Validated catalyst and kinetic models

A modern Clariant catalyst outperformed older references in activity and stability.
Water in the feed significantly accelerates deactivation — highlighting the importance of drying the recycle gas.
A new 40‑parameter kinetic model achieves 20% prediction accuracy across 3,310 data points and resolves weaknesses in previous models.
Deactivation modelling using symbolic regression improved accuracy by 2–4×.

The validated catalyst models enable accurate reactor design, reliable catalyst lifetime prediction, and process optimization for CO₂-based methanol production. This directly supports techno-economic assessments and reduces industrial risk in adopting sustainable production pathways.

Conceptual plant design for Twence

The design includes a water electrolysis unit that produces oxygen‑free green hydrogen from renewable electricity and potable water.
A liquid CO₂ feeding system evaporates CO₂ captured from flue gas using waste process heat.
Methanol synthesis occurs in an adiabatic reactor equipped with a recycle loop to maximize CO₂ conversion.
The resulting crude methanol is purified using a stripper column and a distillation column. In the stripper column, dissolved gases (CO, H₂, CO₂) are removed and recycled back into the process.
In the distillation column, methanol is purified to produce AA‑grade methanol.

Economic feasibility insights

The levelized cost of methanol (LCoM) is €1,929/ton for an integrated Twence plant.
Electricity price and electrolyser CAPEX are the dominant cost drivers.
Intermittent operation with current grid prices is not viable due to the high CAPEX of the electrolyser.