Dashboard of the Carbon Transition Model
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New model predicts most promising routes for a CO2-neutral industry

Most industrial companies in the Netherlands make their own strategy to reduce their CO2 emissions. But what is the impact of this on the entire Dutch industry? And vice versa: how do decisions by other companies and, for example, network operators relate to each other? This requires insight into dependencies, limitations and opportunities. On November 8, 2022, the Institute for Sustainable Process Technology (ISPT) presented the Carbon Transition Model: a transparent, fact-based, publicly accessible model that supports the sustainability transition of fossil-intensive industries.

The Carbon Transition Model works on the basis of data from all approximately 400 companies that are obliged to report to the Dutch emission authority (NEA). These data come from public sources, such as CBS, NEA, Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL) and TNO.

Insight into the entire Dutch industrial landscape

The starting point are options that can be divided into 7 basic routes to make the fossil-intensive industry CO2-neutral. As a user, you can, in your own account, calculate what your choices mean. You can save the results and share them with other users. In this way, a user gains insight into the consequences of choices for sustainability, both for their own company and location and for an industry cluster, region and even the entire Dutch industrial landscape.

Dashboard of the Carbon Transition Model
Dashboard of the Carbon Transition Model

The Carbon Transition Model (CTM) was developed by Kalavasta and ISPT, in collaboration with more than 15 partners from industry and grid management and civil society organizations. The model maps the raw material, energy and emission flows for fossil-intensive companies in the Netherlands. The tool also shows how these flows change when certain sustainable choices are made, taking into account the entire Dutch industrial playing field.

7 routes to make the fossil-intensive industry CO2-neutral

  1. Change of energy and/or raw material source for the industrial process
  2. Changing the industrial process
  3. Change in the amount of emissions captured, stored and/or reused
  4. Recycling of finished products
  5. Change in the carbon content in the finished products leaving the site
  6. New clustering
  7. Emission reduction of purchased electricity or heat from third parties

Forecast new prodcution processes

The Carbon Transition Model shows how many raw materials and energy the industry consumes and which CO2 emissions are associated with this. This calculates the model based on the chosen production process and with the possibility to make forecasts per year. This allows a user to explore the future with the model.

The model shows what the implementation of a new technology can mean and also what is needed to be able to implement it. The calculations go beyond location level, such as a factory site, and also show the impact on the entire Dutch industrial landscape. 

For decision-makers in industry, government, energy sector and society

A common basis such as the Carbon Transition Model is needed to make the industrial transition to 2030 and 2050 and to achieve emission targets. It gives decision-makers in industry, government, energy and society an objective decision-making tool, in which everyone has the same facts and overviews. This allows the right conversations about decisions to be made, without first getting bogged down in discussions about numbers.

The impact on the energy system

There is a link between the CTM and Quintel’s Energy Transition Model, a similar tool for the energy system of the Netherlands. Through this interaction, it can be explored how the transition of the industry affects the energy system. Think of the indirect emissions from gas-fired power plants that occur when there is too little sustainable electricity available for a highly electrified industry. 

Integrale Infrastructuurverkenning 2030-2050

The CTM has already been used in recent months to support Dutch grid operators in an update of the ‘Integrale Infrastructuurverkenning 2030-2050’. The model provided insight into the expected energy needs of the industry. In this way, industry and grid operators can make the right decisions together and make the right investments in time to achieve a robust energy system.

The Carbon Transition Model is part of the Rekenkamer van de Industrie.

Learn More

About the Carbon Transition Model 

The Carbon Transition Model is publicly accessible and can be used by anyone through carbontransitionmodel.com.

About the project

More information on the project that resulted in the Carbon Transition Model.

Experiment during ISPT Conference 2022

During the ISPT Conference ’22 participants experimented with CTM and a brief summary of the findings were given on the issue: What should Tata Steel focus on in 2030?”. These are the results.