Amersfoort, March 17, 2025 – The Tekenkamer van de Industrie (ISPT), Deltalinqs, and Quo Mare have published a scenario study on the transition from crude oil to renewable feedstocks. Commissioned by the province of South Holland and the municipality of Rotterdam, the study explores how different future scenarios guide the transition in the refinery sector and chemical industry in the Harbor Industrial Cluster (HIC) Rotterdam, in line with the net-zero and circularity targets for 2050.
The Challenge: transitioning within limited space
The HIC is a mayor logistical and industrial hub, but the transition to renewable feedstocks presents a significant spatial challenge. The processing of renewable feedstock, such as vegetable oils, (plastic) waste, or biomass, requires more steps and thus more space than fossil-based processes. This study explores the spatial requirements for converting these processes and examines the implications of pursuing sustainability efforts within the existing, limited space.
Impact of spatial constraints
For the transition from fossil to renewable feedstocks in the refinery and cracking industries, an estimated 1.4 times the current space will be needed. Although an initial analysis shows that fuel demand is decreasing – partly due to the rise of electric mobility – and this is freeing up more space, the challenge remains significant.
The study also highlights a dilemma when forcing the transition to take place within the existing space. While technically feasible, this leads to higher costs, delays, and reduced strategic autonomy due to a decline in domestic production. As existing sites have to be dismantled before new processes can be started, this transition would result in temporary production losses and increased dependence on imported end products.
Exploring uncertainty: three future scenarios
In addition to spatial constraints, the study examined how geopolitical and economic uncertainties affect the transition. Based on three scenarios, possible future developments are outlined, focusing on the EU’s mandate and societal fears as drivers of change. These scenarios reflect shifts driven by nationalist conservatism, European climate activism, and European strategic autonomy.
In all scenarios, oil product demand continues to decline, but the extent to which the Netherlands meets its climate targets, maintains autonomy, and sustains economic resilience varies. Additionally, supply chains around vegetable oils (HVO) and syngas emerge in every scenario.
The insights from this study can be applied to strategic policies for transitioning to a circular and CO₂-neutral industry, making effective use of space, and fostering planning and collaboration to accelerate the shift to renewable feedstocks in South Holland.
Arne Weverling
Recommendations for policymakers and industry
It is clear that supportive circularity policies are essential for a successful transition. Since this transformation requires time and a long-term vision, early action is crucial to set direction and provide clarity.
The report offers concrete guidance for policymakers and industry leaders to facilitate the transition of the HIC, considering both opportunities and challenges outlined in the scenarios. Collaboration, smart investments, and a clear long-term strategy are necessary to secure a sustainable and circular future. Whatever choice we make, the time to act is now.
Modeling with TDES
For this scenario study, the Transition of the Dutch Energy System (TDES) model was used. This model maps the entire Dutch energy system, including the refining sector and plastics industry. The model shows how alternative processes for renewable fuels, biodiesel and chemical feedstocks can be introduced step by step.
Questions?
For more information about this scenario study: Andreas ten Cate, andreas.tencate@ispt.eu
For information about next steps in response to the report: Liza van der Aa, ls.vanderaa@rotterdam.nl
More information
This report was conducted by the Tekenkamer van de Industrie, in collaboration with Deltalinqs and Quo Mare. The Tekenkamer van de Industrie conducts research and explorations into the role of industry in the transition to a society based on renewable energy and feedstocks. It provides decision-makers from both the private and public sectors with insights and a comprehensive overview. This enables transparent, fact-based, and forward-looking discussions. The transition to a circular and CO₂-neutral industry is a complex process, involving multiple stakeholders with diverse interests and potential choices. The Tekenkamer van de Industrie uses fact-based and validated models and data to explore these choices and deliver actionable insights.